“Many of us think that must mean something.”īut in his presentation, Jackson casts some doubt on these “ paleoseismological” studies.

“Those places have not produced an earthquake in 100 years.” Based on the data from these locations, it turns out the likelihood that there would be no evidence of a major earthquake in these locations during this timeframe is extremely low. “We have 31 places where we think we know about past earthquakes,” Biasi explains. That’s why scientists have dug numerous trenches along California faults. Digging a paleoseismic trench along the Hayward Fault. In other words, these trenches are used to reconstruct a timeline of past seismic events, which scientists can then use to calculate the likelihood that a major earthquake could occur within a subsequent time frame. Geological Survey (USGS), who was not involved with the study. The gaps between these displacements tell a “micro-geologic story,” says Glenn Biasi, a geophysicist from the U.S. They do this by digging trenches along active fault lines and searching for evidence of ground displacements or marks left behind on the shaken landscape. Studying California’s past earthquakes can help scientists get a better idea of how much shaking the state might see in the future. The oft-spoken phrase, “Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it,” applies to earthquakes, too. But at the 2021 Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting today, Jackson advocated for another possibility: perhaps this so-called “anomalous hiatus” doesn’t actually exist. Alternatively, there might be some unknown interaction between the fault lines that has gifted the state with a relatively peaceful century. “It may be just luck” that there has not been a major earthquake, he admits. However, David Jackson, a geophysicist at the University of California, Los Angeles, is not quite convinced. And given the state’s unusual shortage of large earthquakes, one could easily surmise that California’s well overdue. It’s not a matter of if, but rather when this will happen. Eventually, this stress will be released through a major earthquake - or maybe even several of them. But seismologists know that with each passing year, these faults will continue to accumulate stress. After all, no one wants to experience a big earthquake. Evidence shows that the San Andreas, San Jacinto and Hayward faults should produce a major earthquake roughly three or four times per century (Biasi and Scherer, 2019). But even with all this seismic activity, the state’s three major fault lines have remained eerily quiet. In fact, one occurs about every three minutes, though the majority of these are too small to be felt. With hundreds of known faults running through the state, California is no stranger to earthquakes. Hundreds of active faults run through California Is California overdue for a large earthquake? Perhaps, but residents shouldn’t get complacent.īy Krystal Vasquez Vasquez, K., 2021, Overdue? The future of large earthquakes in California, Temblor,

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